Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142020 200826 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    116.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.4  39.8  40.8  41.1  40.8  43.4  37.9  35.4 VU  U VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  22.0  24.0  24.0  18.0  14.0  12.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 122.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  47.0  53.0  71.0  59.0  62.0  76.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  67.0  70.0  75.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -4.0  -5.0 -11.0  -6.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        2.0%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%