Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142020 200827 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    116.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  34.0  33.6  31.9  34.4  36.4  29.6  26.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  20.0  18.0  16.0  13.0  12.0   7.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 110.7  87.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  73.0  73.0  47.0  57.0  53.0   2.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  65.0  67.0  69.0  73.0  75.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -5.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -9.0  -7.0 -11.0  N  F  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.0%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        6.9%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.9%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        1.9%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        1.9%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        5.3%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%