Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142020 200827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    115.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.6  36.2  32.8  35.6  37.6  33.9  25.7  27.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  17.0  14.0  14.0  13.0  11.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 115.1  93.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  61.0  54.0  42.0  40.0   7.0  20.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  66.0  68.0  71.0  76.0  73.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -9.0  -8.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        4.5%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.0%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%