Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142020 200827 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    115.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.4  30.2  33.7  34.5  35.4  31.5  26.2  29.6  U  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  14.0  12.0  11.0  10.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 114.6  97.4  77.7  67.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  47.0  77.0  65.0  40.0   1.0  16.0  36.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  69.0  68.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0  -2.0 -12.0  -3.0  -7.0   1.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.1%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        7.1%        4.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        2.2%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        2.2%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        2.2%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        4.3%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%