Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142020 200828 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    115.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  34.1  37.2  37.3  35.6  26.3  30.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  13.0  12.0  12.0   7.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 103.6  84.4  68.6  60.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  50.0  44.0  50.0   0.0  22.0  44.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  67.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0 -11.0  -7.0  -2.0   1.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        0.9%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        5.1%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.4%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%