Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142020 200828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    115.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.7  39.7  39.2  40.2  30.9  29.1  27.4  24.6  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  13.0  12.0  12.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 109.6  90.5  63.6  51.7  49.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  28.0  66.0  52.0  -9.0  11.0  12.0  23.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  70.0  70.0  73.0  73.0  68.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -8.0 -12.0  -9.0  -5.0   0.0  -1.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        0.9%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        3.9%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%