Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142020 200828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    115.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.4  38.3  38.3  38.4  29.5  26.3  27.7  23.6  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  10.0   7.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 109.6  98.6  88.5  66.5  54.2  49.3  48.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  53.0  15.0   6.0  13.0  46.0   8.0   8.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  69.0  70.0  72.0  70.0  65.0  56.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  F  N  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        0.8%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.1%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%