Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142020 200829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    115.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.4  35.6  33.4  27.2  24.0  21.1  19.7  16.2  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        106.5  96.6  86.0  75.0  60.5  55.9  52.7  47.8  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  -5.0 -16.0  10.0   8.0  17.0  19.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  73.0  73.0  67.0  58.0  51.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -7.0  -5.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons