Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142020 200829 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    114.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.1  34.5  28.7  26.0  26.2  19.0  20.9  20.9  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.5  87.7  78.0  69.4  58.2  51.7  47.8  47.8  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0 -10.0 -14.0   6.0   9.0  -8.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  67.0  60.0  52.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -6.0  -6.0  -1.0  -2.0  -7.0  -7.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons