Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142020 200829 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  29.8  25.8  26.2  23.0  21.1  19.9  19.9  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.4  78.0  69.4  60.5  53.8  49.7  46.8  46.8  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0 -11.0  -4.0 -11.0  -3.0  13.0  12.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  74.0  70.0  63.0  55.0  48.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -6.0  -2.0  -1.0  -5.0  -4.0  -4.0  F  F  F  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons