Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142020 200830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    114.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  29.2  25.7  25.6  23.7  24.9  15.3  15.3  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         83.0  73.0  66.7  62.0  57.7  53.7  51.8  51.8  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0  -7.0 -17.0   0.0   8.0   9.0 -19.0 -19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  69.0  67.0  61.0  53.0  50.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -6.0  -3.0  -3.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons