Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152020 200906 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    103.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  26.0  24.8  26.8  18.2  18.4  18.1  18.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  11.0  12.0   7.0   5.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 120.1 117.9 111.5 105.5 105.5  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  11.0  25.0  31.0   1.0 -16.0 -17.0 -17.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  81.0  80.0  81.0  77.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.1%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.2%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%