Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152020 200906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    105.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  23.3  18.7  15.3   9.6  16.8  22.6  22.6  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0   9.0   5.0   6.0   5.0   7.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 122.0 115.1 112.9 108.6  96.6  87.7  87.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  29.0  39.0  38.0  10.0  31.0  18.0  18.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  80.0  78.0  73.0  69.0  64.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -5.0  -6.0  -1.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0  F  N  F  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        1.9%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%       12.0%        7.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        5.1%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        5.1%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        5.1%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.5%       15.0%        9.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.0%        5.4%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%        5.5%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        4.7%        2.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        4.4%        2.3%