Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152020 200906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    107.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  13.0  13.1  13.9  13.1  20.6  18.7  18.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   9.0   8.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.7 108.6 110.7 112.9 104.4 100.5  93.0  93.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  26.0  27.0  -1.0   9.0  13.0  -4.0  -4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  76.0  72.0  70.0  64.0  63.0  57.0  57.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0 -10.0  -6.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        1.9%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%       10.5%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        4.4%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        4.4%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        4.4%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%       13.3%        8.0%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%        4.9%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%        1.6%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        3.7%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        4.0%        2.1%