Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152020 200906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    109.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  15.8  15.0  15.3  14.6  14.6  15.3  15.3  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0  10.0   9.0   7.0   6.0   6.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.3 127.0 127.0 120.1 113.6 109.4 101.6 101.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  24.0  -2.0 -19.0  13.0  25.0  26.0  26.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  71.0  69.0  66.0  62.0  60.0  54.0  54.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -8.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        6.6%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        7.8%        4.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        2.3%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%        3.9%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        2.4%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        5.3%        3.6%