Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152020 200907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    110.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  15.3  16.4  15.1  14.1  14.2  15.6  15.6  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  11.0  10.0   8.0   7.0   8.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 132.0 127.3 122.9 120.7 116.5 116.5  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -33.0   4.0 -12.0   1.0   8.0  30.0  34.0  34.0 VU  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  61.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        3.1%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.0%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        2.9%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        3.3%        4.8%        4.1%