Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152020 200907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    112.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  16.4  15.8  14.6  14.5  14.5  14.5  14.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   9.0   7.0   7.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 137.0 132.3 130.1 125.7 125.7 125.7 125.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  -6.0 -14.0   9.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  66.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        3.0%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        4.5%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        2.7%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        5.9%        4.5%