Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162020 200913 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    112.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  29.1  27.9  23.1  22.8  21.5  24.9  19.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  11.0   8.0   7.0   7.0   3.0   2.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 127.3 110.5 103.0 101.2  99.4  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  67.0  47.0  18.0 -14.0  22.0  -6.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  67.0  64.0  61.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -11.0  -9.0  -1.0  -1.0  -6.0  -7.0  -1.0 VF  F  F  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.9%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        8.6%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.2%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.2%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        9.1%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.2%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        3.4%        1.9%