Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162020 200913 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    114.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  24.0  25.5  24.4  24.0  33.1  23.8  21.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 124.3 112.9 106.5  94.8  87.7  81.1  73.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  34.0  23.0   6.0  29.0   0.0   3.0 -27.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  66.0  62.0  59.0  56.0  54.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0  F  N  F  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        3.2%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%       12.5%        8.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        4.6%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        4.6%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        4.6%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%       11.3%        6.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        3.4%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%