Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162020 200913 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    115.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  26.5  24.6  20.0  26.7  28.1  23.2  19.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  10.0   9.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.6 112.9 104.4  98.5  89.4  84.3  75.0  64.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  25.0   9.0  47.0  30.0   9.0 -17.0   0.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  64.0  61.0  60.0  56.0  56.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   6.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        1.6%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        6.8%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.1%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        6.0%        3.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%