Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162020 200914 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    116.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  24.0  20.8  21.3  33.8  25.7  19.9  22.1  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  10.0   6.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.7 104.4  98.5  93.0  86.0  79.6  70.8  60.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  13.0  44.0   4.0  19.0  -4.0 -22.0   2.0  U  U  N  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  58.0  55.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0  -3.0  -7.0  -1.0   0.0   4.0   8.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%