Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162020 200914 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    117.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  20.9  27.0  32.8  26.5  17.6  18.0  18.8  N  N  N  U  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  11.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.6 102.4  98.5  93.0  84.3  76.5  65.4  58.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  41.0  15.0  14.0  20.0  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  61.0  57.0  56.0  53.0  50.0  46.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -6.0  -8.0  -6.0   2.0   1.0   6.0   9.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons