Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162020 200914 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    118.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  30.0  34.5  33.7  23.0  21.4  25.3  23.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0   8.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.4  98.5  94.8  89.4  79.6  66.7  58.2  48.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  12.0  12.0  22.0 -11.0 -15.0   5.0  -6.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  56.0  52.0  49.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -12.0  -6.0  -9.0   1.0   2.0   8.0   7.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons