Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162020 200914 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20    118.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  31.6  31.2  29.2  23.9  24.2  26.3  28.1  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.5  93.0  87.7  82.7  69.4  54.8  46.8  42.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0   6.0  18.0  13.0 -20.0 -16.0   0.0  -4.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  61.0  58.0  53.0  49.0  45.0  39.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -5.0  -4.0   0.0   6.0  11.0  12.0  10.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons