Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162020 200915 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    119.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  30.9  27.4  24.6  22.3  26.3  25.9  27.1  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         86.2  79.3  74.6  68.6  54.3  41.8  39.1  35.8  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  29.0  30.0  -5.0 -24.0   0.0   7.0   7.0  U  N  N  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  57.0  54.0  50.0  48.0  44.0  37.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -1.0   1.0   7.0  11.0   8.0   7.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.6%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons