Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162020 200915 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    120.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.0  27.5  26.9  25.2  24.1  27.2  26.5  28.1  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.0  69.6  63.6  55.4  41.7  35.0  31.6  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  27.0  -6.0 -25.0 -18.0   5.0   0.0  -7.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  46.0  44.0  41.0  35.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   7.0  11.0  10.0  11.0  11.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        0.6%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons