Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162020 200915 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    120.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  26.5  26.8  23.7  23.5  25.8  27.3  28.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         69.6  63.6  55.4  48.2  37.8  32.4  30.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  -4.0 -10.0 -13.0  -3.0   9.0  14.0   7.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  54.0  52.0  50.0  45.0  44.0  40.0  32.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0   6.0   6.0  10.0   9.0  11.0   9.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons