Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162020 200915 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    121.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  26.7  23.8  23.1  26.7  27.9  30.3  24.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         66.5  59.4  50.5  43.8  35.9  31.6  30.8  34.1  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  -9.0 -15.0   6.0   3.0  14.0 -15.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  50.0  49.0  45.0  42.0  38.0  32.0  26.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   6.0   5.0   8.0   9.0  10.0  10.0  11.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons