Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162020 200916 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    122.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  24.7  23.3  23.4  26.5  27.4  27.9  22.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.4  51.7  44.8  39.7  33.3  31.6  33.3  38.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0  -9.0   3.0  -4.0  12.0 -14.0 -23.0  -5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  45.0  43.0  42.0  36.0  28.0  25.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   7.0   7.0   8.0   8.0   6.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons