Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162020 200916 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    124.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  22.5  25.6  26.7  27.6  27.0  24.9  24.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         62.0  56.7  52.8  49.1  45.8  46.6  49.1  49.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  -8.0  -1.0  -3.0   8.0 -12.0 -25.0 -25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  44.0  44.0  42.0  38.0  29.0  25.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   8.0   7.0   8.0  10.0   5.0   8.0   8.0  N  U  N  U  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons