Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162020 200917 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10    124.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  24.9  26.9  28.0  29.9  24.5  24.3  24.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         57.8  54.1  52.4  50.8  50.0  51.6  54.1  54.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  -7.0  11.0  10.0  -8.0 -18.0  -8.0  -8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  43.0  40.0  39.0  31.0  27.0  23.0  23.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   7.0  10.0  10.0   5.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons