Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172020 200920 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    108.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  25.0  27.5  25.8  19.8  12.3  10.2  15.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  14.0  17.0  14.0   8.0   5.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 121.5 108.0 101.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  24.0  17.0  24.0  20.0  16.0  27.0  10.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  67.0  68.0  61.0  60.0  57.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -12.0 -14.0 -14.0  -7.0   0.0   2.0   7.0  F  F VF VF  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        9.0%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.4%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%       13.8%        7.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        3.7%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        6.9%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        5.6%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.8%       11.3%        7.5%