Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172020 200921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    108.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  25.1  24.5  20.7  16.0  11.3  15.2  14.7  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  17.0  16.0  14.0   9.0   5.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 137.0 113.5 104.4  97.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  36.0  60.0  58.0  33.0  29.0  30.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  71.0  70.0  65.0  63.0  57.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -13.0  -9.0  -6.0  -8.0   2.0   5.0   2.0  F VF  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        9.1%        5.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.5%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.5%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%       15.4%        8.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        4.5%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        4.2%        7.2%        5.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        6.5%        4.1%
 65kt / 72h        4.6%       10.9%        7.7%