Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172020 200921 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  21.4  21.7  18.0  13.6  12.6  13.2  13.2  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  11.0   9.0   6.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 125.1 106.6  97.7  94.3  88.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  52.0  28.0  40.0  13.0  44.0  26.0  -3.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  65.0  66.0  62.0  58.0  53.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -9.0 -12.0  -7.0  -1.0   3.0   3.0   6.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.5%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%       11.9%        6.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        3.9%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        3.9%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        3.9%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%       15.4%        8.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        4.8%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h        3.0%        2.3%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.3%        5.4%        3.8%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%        7.4%        4.9%