Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172020 200921 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    112.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  22.1  17.8  16.2   9.9  13.5  12.0  16.1  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   8.0   6.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 112.9 102.4  89.4  84.3  79.6  72.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  23.0  18.0   7.0  24.0  31.0   7.0  -3.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  65.0  62.0  59.0  53.0  49.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -12.0  -7.0  -2.0   3.0   4.0   6.0   9.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.4%        5.4%        5.9%
 25kt / 24h        8.0%       22.1%       15.1%
 30kt / 24h        5.7%       11.0%        8.3%
 35kt / 24h        4.4%       11.0%        7.7%
 40kt / 24h        4.4%       11.0%        7.7%
 45kt / 36h        5.8%       26.7%       16.3%
 55kt / 36h        4.5%       11.9%        8.2%
 55kt / 48h        5.2%        5.2%        5.2%
 70kt / 48h        5.2%        8.6%        6.9%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        6.2%        3.6%