Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172020 200922 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    113.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  18.6  15.8  15.5  13.7  12.1  12.9  16.8  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   6.0   4.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 117.3 106.5  96.6  89.4  84.3  79.6  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  19.0  21.0  31.0  15.0  23.0 -20.0   0.0  N  U  U  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  64.0  61.0  59.0  54.0  51.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -8.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   5.0   6.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        4.2%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%       16.7%       10.9%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%        7.3%        5.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        7.3%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        7.3%        4.5%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%       18.9%       11.0%
 55kt / 36h        2.4%        7.5%        5.0%
 55kt / 48h        3.5%        3.5%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        5.4%        4.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        4.4%        2.5%