Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172020 200922 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20    116.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  19.9  17.7  16.9  15.8  14.2  13.8  16.2  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.6  95.5  89.8  86.2  81.0  74.6  67.2  60.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  10.0  24.0   9.0  13.0 -20.0 -23.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  61.0  61.0  58.0  54.0  48.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -3.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   6.0   6.0   3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        1.8%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        6.3%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.4%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.4%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.1%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        6.7%        3.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.4%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        1.0%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        1.6%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons