Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172020 200923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    118.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  17.7  16.6  15.7  18.6  18.5  19.5  21.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         93.0  89.4  87.7  84.3  76.5  70.8  61.7  61.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0   6.0   4.0   6.0 -13.0  -2.0 -36.0 -18.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  59.0  58.0  53.0  48.0  42.0  38.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   4.0   5.0  10.0   8.0   5.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.3%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons