Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172020 200923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    119.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  17.4  15.0  15.3  19.1  19.9  20.7  25.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.7  81.0  77.7  74.6  65.8  56.7  52.0  53.2  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0   5.0  21.0   5.0 -12.0  -3.0 -11.0 -18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  59.0  54.0  51.0  45.0  40.0  37.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   5.0   8.0   7.0  10.0   5.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.9%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.6%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.5%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons