Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172020 200923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    120.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  15.8  15.2  16.3  19.1  19.8  23.1  26.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.3  77.7  74.6  68.6  60.4  53.2  50.9  52.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  15.0   3.0 -11.0  -6.0 -23.0   6.0 -18.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  53.0  52.0  46.0  42.0  37.0  34.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   7.0   7.0   9.0   7.0   5.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.2%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.8%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.0%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons