Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172020 200924 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    123.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  18.8  20.1  21.4  23.8  29.8  33.8  39.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         68.0  61.7  57.0  52.7  50.7  51.7  51.7  51.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0 -19.0  -1.0 -13.0   2.0 -13.0  -9.0 -28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  47.0  46.0  44.0  39.0  35.0  32.0  31.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  11.0   8.0   7.0   2.0   2.0  -4.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons