Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182020 200929 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    107.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  27.5  27.6  24.6  18.2  13.2  16.6  12.9  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  19.0  14.0  14.0  24.0  16.0  17.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 132.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   133.0 131.0 121.0 120.0 120.0 115.0  60.0 100.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  75.0  72.0  74.0  75.0  70.0  69.0  F  F  F  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -10.0  -8.0  -7.0  -7.0  -3.0  -4.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        2.7%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h       10.9%       27.6%       19.2%
 30kt / 24h        3.7%       11.6%        7.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%       11.6%        6.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%       10.6%        6.3%
 45kt / 36h       10.4%       40.8%       25.6%
 55kt / 36h        3.6%       17.6%       10.6%
 55kt / 48h       21.4%       29.2%       25.3%
 70kt / 48h        7.0%       26.8%       16.9%
 65kt / 72h       24.6%       46.0%       35.3%