Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182020 200929 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    108.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  27.3  23.8  20.2  16.8  19.1  19.8  13.3  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  15.0  14.0  15.0  19.0  16.0  14.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   115.0 119.0 109.0  99.0 110.0  56.0  77.0  42.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  74.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -7.0  -8.0  -5.0  -5.0  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        3.0%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h       13.0%       33.2%       23.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.6%       16.3%       10.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%       16.3%        9.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%       14.3%        7.7%
 45kt / 36h       11.3%       48.1%       29.7%
 55kt / 36h        4.4%       24.4%       14.4%
 55kt / 48h       19.4%       31.3%       25.3%
 70kt / 48h        6.3%       28.8%       17.5%
 65kt / 72h       17.1%       43.0%       30.1%