Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182020 200929 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    108.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  23.7  20.8  19.1  20.0  21.2  15.0  13.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  14.0  16.0  26.0  14.0  16.0  13.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 127.0 117.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    99.0 109.0  98.0 120.0 108.0  67.0  74.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  73.0  72.0  71.0  69.0  73.0  69.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -7.0  -5.0  -3.0  -5.0  -6.0  -5.0  -2.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        2.4%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h       10.2%       25.5%       17.9%
 30kt / 24h        4.6%       11.7%        8.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%       11.7%        6.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%       11.7%        6.9%
 45kt / 36h       10.8%       32.3%       21.5%
 55kt / 36h        4.2%       12.5%        8.3%
 55kt / 48h       13.1%       19.4%       16.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%       14.2%        9.5%
 65kt / 72h       14.6%       28.2%       21.4%