Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182020 200930 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    110.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  20.0  19.6  17.2  18.3  17.0  14.3  15.4  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  16.0  27.0  19.0  17.0  13.0  12.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3 117.3  94.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0  99.0 107.0  96.0  56.0  77.0  48.0  94.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -4.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  -7.0  -3.0   2.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.1%        5.0%        5.0%
 25kt / 24h       18.6%       36.6%       27.6%
 30kt / 24h       11.3%       22.7%       17.0%
 35kt / 24h        9.1%       22.7%       15.9%
 40kt / 24h        9.1%       22.7%       15.9%
 45kt / 36h       17.9%       41.2%       29.6%
 55kt / 36h        8.2%       19.1%       13.7%
 55kt / 48h       17.8%       25.7%       21.8%
 70kt / 48h        6.9%       20.2%       13.6%
 65kt / 72h       12.7%       27.4%       20.1%