Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182020 200930 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    111.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  16.8  17.1  16.4  17.5  10.2  11.1  16.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  27.0  17.0  13.0  16.0  14.0  10.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 117.0 103.6  84.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  98.0  89.0 110.0  74.0  86.0  95.0  88.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  72.0  70.0  67.0  70.0  64.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -5.0  -8.0  -9.0  -5.0   0.0   2.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.7%       11.2%       10.9%
 25kt / 24h       32.4%       54.4%       43.4%
 30kt / 24h       20.3%       43.3%       31.8%
 35kt / 24h       20.3%       43.3%       31.8%
 40kt / 24h       20.3%       43.3%       31.8%
 45kt / 36h       28.7%       55.9%       42.3%
 55kt / 36h       14.6%       34.0%       24.3%
 55kt / 48h       28.8%       42.6%       35.7%
 70kt / 48h       10.7%       35.0%       22.8%
 65kt / 72h       18.3%       36.4%       27.3%