Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182020 200930 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    113.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  17.9  18.3  19.0  21.0  10.7   9.7  20.3  F  F  F  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  16.0  12.0  17.0  15.0  14.0  10.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3 112.0  94.4  77.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0 103.0 105.0  85.0  75.0  32.0  54.0  13.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  74.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  58.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -8.0 -10.0  -8.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.4%       16.3%       15.4%
 25kt / 24h       41.6%       61.3%       51.5%
 30kt / 24h       25.4%       53.2%       39.3%
 35kt / 24h       23.0%       53.2%       38.1%
 40kt / 24h       23.0%       53.2%       38.1%
 45kt / 36h       28.3%       54.0%       41.1%
 55kt / 36h       13.2%       33.3%       23.2%
 55kt / 48h       23.2%       39.2%       31.2%
 70kt / 48h        6.2%       28.9%       17.6%
 65kt / 72h        7.6%       24.9%       16.2%