Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182020 200930 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20    114.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  18.1  19.2  21.3  16.4  10.4  12.1  18.8  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  12.0  16.0  19.0  15.0  12.0   8.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 104.3 104.3  99.6  80.5  67.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0 114.0  83.0  81.0  64.0  47.0  24.0   7.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  64.0  54.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -8.0  -7.0 -13.0  -4.0  -3.0   1.0   2.0  F  F  F VF  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       48.2%       35.3%       41.7%
 25kt / 24h       61.8%       75.7%       68.8%
 30kt / 24h       53.1%       75.4%       64.3%
 35kt / 24h       53.1%       75.4%       64.3%
 40kt / 24h       53.1%       75.4%       64.3%
 45kt / 36h       43.6%       66.5%       55.0%
 55kt / 36h       24.5%       49.4%       36.9%
 55kt / 48h       29.6%       50.8%       40.2%
 70kt / 48h        8.3%       38.4%       23.4%
 65kt / 72h        6.1%       24.2%       15.1%