Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182020 201001 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    115.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  22.1  23.7  22.0  13.9  10.4  16.4  23.8  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  15.0  20.0  17.0  14.0  10.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0  99.3  99.3  97.0  81.5  62.7  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   110.0 102.0  95.0  82.0  23.0  27.0  17.0  19.0  F  F  F  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  69.0  71.0  70.0  61.0  55.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -8.0  -9.0  -7.0  -5.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       48.4%       34.6%       41.5%
 25kt / 24h       62.3%       73.1%       67.7%
 30kt / 24h       50.5%       73.1%       61.8%
 35kt / 24h       46.4%       73.1%       59.7%
 40kt / 24h       46.0%       73.1%       59.6%
 45kt / 36h       39.6%       61.8%       50.7%
 55kt / 36h       21.4%       44.3%       32.9%
 55kt / 48h       19.9%       41.2%       30.5%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%       27.9%       16.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%       11.5%        6.6%