Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182020 201001 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    117.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  21.2  20.1  17.5   9.4  12.5  17.1  29.6  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  20.0  16.0  15.0  11.0   5.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  84.3  84.3  84.3  72.9  56.6  42.7  32.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0 105.0  94.0  69.0  55.0  46.0  13.0  -4.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  68.0  69.0  63.0  53.0  47.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -12.0  -9.0  -4.0  -4.0   2.0   0.0   8.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       75.5%       48.4%       62.0%
 25kt / 24h       82.6%       82.5%       82.6%
 30kt / 24h       82.6%       82.5%       82.6%
 35kt / 24h       82.6%       82.5%       82.6%
 40kt / 24h       82.6%       82.5%       82.6%
 45kt / 36h       63.1%       63.9%       63.5%
 55kt / 36h       30.7%       50.1%       40.4%
 55kt / 48h       23.4%       32.6%       28.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%